SEATTLE REAL ESTATE - GLOOM, DOOM OR BOOM ?

OUTLOOK FOR 2012 - A PREVIEW

2011-12-23T16:00:00.000-08:00

The present refusal of the Status Quo to impose the rule of law on financial crimes is best captured by the Vietnam War-era quote: "We had to destroy the village to save it." To save the fragile financial sector from the consequences of its systemic fraud and embezzlement, the Federal government has purposefully destroyed the rule of law: the laws governing banks and financial transactions are not being enforced, lest that enforcement bring down the house of cards that enriches and sustains the political Elite.

REAL ESTATE MARKET HOSTAGE TO JOBS

2011-12-23T13:07:00.000-08:00

The official, U-3 unemployment rate is 8.6 percent. But while the unemployment rate has been dropping, so has the labor force participation rate, as measured by the U.S. Department of Labor. Instead of being classified as unemployed, more and more Americans are no longer considered part of the official labor force that is either a) working or b) looking for work. This lowers the unemployment rate. But what if Washington hadn’t disguised all those discouraged workers since the recession started? Well, take a look at the yellow line below (via JPMorgan). The unemployment rate would be over 11 percent:

Some economists point out that there is a secular reason for the drop: America is aging and more of us are heading into retirement. But JPMorgan economist James Glassman says demographics are hardly the whole story:How significant is the demographic drag on the labor force participation rate, labor force growth, and the unemployment rate? A useful guess about this is to ask, What would happen to the overall labor force participation rate if the participation rate for each age group (cohort) stayed at the late-2007 (prerecession) level. That would ignore the effect the recession had on each group, the increase in the number of dropouts.In that calculation, any change in the overall labor force participation rate would reflect only the rising number of workers turning 55 or more who naturally, according to the illustration [below], begin to scale back their hours or retireThe number is calculated by looking at how many people are employed. The top line marks out where the labor force participation rate stood in 2007. The bottom line illustrates the actual labor force participation rate, which has fallen from 66.4 percent in 2007 to 64 percent currently. The second from the bottom line in the illustration shows what the labor force participation rate would have done if the participation rate for each age group had held steady over the recession as the population aged. It indicates that the labor force participation rate would have fallen to 65.1 percent, accounting for only half of the decline in the actual labor force participation rate. This calculation is a maximum estimate of the demographic impact on the labor force participation rate.

CREDIT TO

TRUTH

2011-12-13T14:20:00.001-08:00

Tough for housing to improve when the real economy continues to face headwinds.

I dislike both political parties equally. Just a different side of the same coin. Clowns to the left of me jokers to the right and here I am stuck in the middle with you.

REAL ESTATE WILL CONTINUE WEAK BASED ON JOBS

2011-09-06T15:39:00.000-07:00

DISTRESSED PROPERTY INDEX

2011-04-22T09:03:00.000-07:00

A large portion of market activity is still made up of distressed properties.

EAT THE RICH!

2011-04-04T14:00:00.000-07:00

Interesting video.

Labor Force Participation Rate Remains At 25 Year Low 64.2%

2011-04-01T08:14:00.000-07:00

When measuring employment. This is the figure that is the least influenced by governmental meddling. FOR THOSE THAT WANT MORE DETAIL READ HERE.

FORECASTS

2011-04-01T08:02:00.001-07:00

Prices Off to a Dismal Start in 2011

2011-03-29T06:32:00.001-07:00

UNDEREMPLOYMENT

2011-03-25T17:29:00.001-07:00

Click pic to enlarge Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of part-time workers wanting full-time work with the percentage who are unemployed, was 19.9% in mid-March. Not surprisingly given the lack of change in its components, this is identical to the end-of-February reading, and is virtually the same as the 20.0% of mid-March a year ago. READ MORE

NATIONAL DEBT

2011-02-16T15:45:00.001-08:00

This amount of debt will continue to pressure rates.

Double Dip In Housing

2011-02-08T11:03:00.000-08:00

DOUBLE DIP: Home Prices Just Declined For The Fifth Straight Month

Read the rest here. Pretty much in line with our thinking.

2011 FORECAST

2011-01-28T10:26:00.000-08:00

Have been asked by several clients if my 2011 forecast is almost done. It is and will be out shortly. Thanks for your patience.

HOUSE PRICES CONTINUE TO FALL

2011-01-25T10:23:00.001-08:00

For a great breakdown of the market go here.

Study: Renting more affordable than buying in Seattle

2011-01-25T10:08:00.000-08:00

By HEATHER BOSCH
KIRO Radio
Seattle is one of the worst places to buy a home instead of renting one, according to the new study.

Seattle ranked second on trulia.com's list for cities where it is better to rent than to buy. With the average rent ranging from $1,000 to $1,500 and the average home price between $400,000 and $500,000. Only homeowners in New York get a worse deal.

Only four cities in the study show renting as less expensive than buying. Those include Seattle, New York, Kansas City and San Francisco. The other cities on the list show buying may be a more solid long-term investment.

THE REST PLEASE GO HERE

Please note this is Seattle. Go south and it's a different animal!

Existing Home Inventory increases 8.4% Year-over-Year

2010-11-23T09:24:00.000-08:00

The bottom line: Sales were weak in October - almost exactly at the levels I expected - and will continue to be weak for some time. Inventory is very high - and the significant year-over-year increase in inventory is very concerning. The high level of inventory and months-of-supply will put downward pressure on house prices.

Rest of story and charts can be found here.

2010-11-22T14:34:00.000-08:00

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DONT TOUCH MY JUNK

2010-11-19T15:23:00.000-08:00

THE BANKS ARE BROKE!

2010-11-17T14:11:00.001-08:00

STOP THE LOOTING AND START THE PROSECUTION!!!!!!!!!

REAL ESTATE PRICES CONTINUE TO FALL

2010-11-17T09:42:00.000-08:00

"We’re continuing to see price declines across the board with all but seven states seeing a decrease in home prices,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “This continued and widespread decline will put further pressure on negative equity and stall the housing recovery.” Entire article can be found here.

No suprise to us. Show us the jobs then housing will follow.

STOP THE LOOTING AND START THE PROSECUTIONS

2010-10-20T15:31:00.000-07:00

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

ONLY THE BEST AND BRIGHTEST - WE ARE SCREWED

2010-10-20T14:21:00.000-07:00

REMINDS ME OF THIS -

IT'S EVERYWHERE ! FRAUD CORRUPTION!

2010-10-20T14:12:00.001-07:00

VERY GOOD LISTEN

2010-10-11T12:56:00.000-07:00

A SERIOUS CHECK ON REALITY

2010-08-24T20:25:00.000-07:00

Case Shiller: Home Prices TIck Up In May, But Housing Market Still Basically Flat

2010-07-31T07:22:00.000-07:00

Latest Case Shiller Report can be read here.

COLD MARKET - HARSH REALITY

2010-06-25T11:45:00.000-07:00

Housing sales, housing starts, and mortgage refinancings have all collapsed along with the expiration of home-buyer tax credits.

Yesterday the Census Bureau report on New Residential Sales in May 2010 showed sales of new single-family houses in May 2010 collapsed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 300,000.

Roof Collapses on Housing Market

New home sales cratered a record 33% in May, to a record low of 300,000 units at an annual rate. This breaks the prior all-time low of 341,000 set back in April 2009 when the economy was knee deep (more like six feet under) in recession.

There must have been a wave of cancellations too because April was revised down to 446,000 from 504,000 and March to 389,000 from 439,000. The only other time when new home sales made a new low 11 months after the end of a recession was during the double dip of the early 1980s – assuming that the pundits are correct on this assessment of when the economy bottomed out.

The inventory backlog, which had taken a dive in April as the tax credits were about to expire, soared from 5.8 months to an 11-month high of 8.5 months. And, this excess supply is exerting more downward pressure on pricing – the median price of a new home fell 1% MoM in May to $200,900 and is now down nearly 10% for the year (was $222,600 in December). Home prices have not been this low since December 2003 and are light years away from the $257,000 peak established in mid-2006.

Despite all the stimulus aimed at the housing market, it took builders a record median 14.2 months to find a buyer for a completed home in May. This sector is broken. People don’t want to buy an asset they see will depreciate in value. And people don’t want to pursue the dream of homeownership if it means taking out a mortgage – the scars from the credit collapse are obviously lingering if not accelerating.

Median Months To Sell New Single-Family Homes

Housing's Upside Down V-Shaped Recovery

TO READ COMPLETE ARTICLE.

HUGE REASON WHY HOUSING RECOVERY IS QUESTIONABLE

2010-06-24T17:10:00.000-07:00

Can't have 100% of the population working for the Government. At least in my reality.

For more click here.

HOMEBUYER TAX CREDIT BOOSTS CONSTRUCTION SPENDING

2010-06-02T11:34:00.000-07:00

Construction spending jumped 2.7% MoM in April, nowhere near economists expectations for a flat reading (although, we wonder aloud, if the bar was set too low given that housing starts were very strong in April, helped by the home buyer tax credit).

On top of this, March was revised higher. Not surprisingly, residential outlays jumped 4.5% (again, likely boosted by the looming expiry of the tax credit) while non-res construction rose by a more modest 2%. With the expiry of the tax credit, we expect home building and real estate activity to slow considerably in the months ahead.

David A. Rosenberg June 2, 2010
Chief Economist & Strategist

I concur with Mr. Rosenberg's assessment and think that anything the government will end like this:

WHERE WE ARE TODAY

2010-06-01T15:10:00.000-07:00

GOLDMAN SACHS THEME SONG - A CRIMINAL MIND

THE BEAT GOES ON......

2010-05-12T15:40:00.001-07:00

My updated forecast is coming. Just been busy!

PUGET SOUND REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE

2010-04-10T08:53:00.000-07:00

In the process of ammending our forecast for 2010. You can read that report here.

The picture is an indication of how we feel 2010 will play out.

The House that eats Realtors

2010-04-10T08:28:00.000-07:00

I have written about following the market down numerous times but I came accross this article and wanted to repost it.

Here's how it happens:
Step 1: A seller lists their property in Southern Maryland with a Realtor. Realtor does a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA), and determines the home is worth $250,000, and the seller decides to list the home for $275,000.
Step 2: House fails to sell. Meanwhile, the home down the street sells for $250,000. After 6 months, the seller decides the agent hasn't done their job and fires them.
Step 3: Seller hires a new agent, and lists the house for $250,000. The current CMA shows the home is now only worth $225,000. Once again the home is overpriced because the market value is declining. The house sits on the market for another 6 months without a single offer.

Step 4: The agent can't sell the overpriced house, so the seller fires them, and hires someone else. The home has been on the market for a year now, with 3 different agents. This time, the seller lists the home at $225,000. Again, the market has declined and the home is only worth $200,000.
Step 5: I think you get the idea here....

For the rest of the article read here.

Renovators And Landlords Beware: Lead Paint Regulations Change in April

2010-04-04T05:15:00.000-07:00

Homes built prior to 1978 would be sbject to some stringent rules that impact anyone disturbing more than a six foot area that contains lead paint. Violation of these new regulations could be very costly. So if you are a landlord or plan any renovations you must read this.

Link to regulations.

WHAT ABOUT STAGING ??

2010-04-03T16:45:00.000-07:00

Staging is pretty much worthless if the property is improperly priced I wrote this back in 2007......

don greenup
November 6, 2007 at 4:29 pm
I believe in getting a house ready for sale and properly advising a seller as to what needs to be done. But proper pricing is where most agents have recently fallen off the rails. When a market stalls you need to jump ahead of the downward curve. Agents get so caught up on the balloons and nonsense that they dont price the property properly. We are in a flat or down market through 2008 so while staging helps it will do little if the pricing is wrongly based on sales six months prior.

raincityguide

In the current market we are in pricing is the most important consideration in getting the property sold.

BEST AND BRIGHTEST IN D.C.

2010-04-02T12:53:00.000-07:00

YEP !

2010-03-22T10:48:00.001-07:00

FUNNY STUFF - EXCEPT ITS TOO TRUE!

2010-03-18T11:45:00.000-07:00

Hits home based on the crazy market. Gotta laugh and smile regardless!

REAL ESTATE FORECAST 2010

2010-01-24T05:46:00.000-08:00

Bear or Bull?

Well here it is- 2010 Forecast

BUYER TAX CREDIT EXTENSION

2009-11-17T17:55:00.000-08:00

Here are the provisions for the extended buyer tax credit.

click to enlarge

LATEST NEWS ON TAX CREDIT

2009-10-29T03:14:00.001-07:00

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Senators have struck a deal to extend a popular tax credit for home buyers beyond those buying their first house, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's office said Wednesday.

Legislators also have agreed to extend the tax credit through the end of April, according to a Reuters report.

An $8,000 credit for first-time home buyers is set to expire at the end of November. Under a compromise reached by senators, the credit would be expanded to those who have lived in their home for five consecutive years, a Reid spokeswoman said.

The credit for repeat buyers would be $6,500.

The credit reportedly would be available for individuals making up to $125,000 a year and couples earning up to $225,000 per year, up from the current income limits of $75,000 and $150,000, respectively.

$ 8,000 TAX CREDIT FOR BUYERS

2009-09-19T15:00:00.000-07:00

Tax Credit Provides Outstanding Opportunity for Home Buyers A tax credit of up to $8,000 is available for qualified first-time home buyers purchasing a principal residence on or after January 1, 2009 and before December 1, 2009.

Also a possible extension in the works........ click here to read.

SLOW PROGRESS BUT PROGRESS !

2009-08-25T09:59:00.000-07:00

Latest Housing report.... Prices increased in 15 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in June. If you wish to read the entire report please go here. It would appear we are reaching the bottom inch by inch.

GLEN ACRES CONDOMINIUM LAWSUIT

2009-08-24T08:51:00.000-07:00

This is a continuation of the previous post of about a week ago. Click here to review that post. The importance of doing your homework prior to buying a condominium is imperative. Improperly run or underfunded homeowners associations can destroy resale value and give existing owners grief. You can obtain information from a variety of sources but the most vital is the resale certificate. I do not know the validity of the lawsuit that is pending against Glen Acres but prior to buying any condominium you must do your homework!

RCW regarding resale units and reserve studies:

RCW 64.34.425
Resale of unit.
(1) Except in the case of a sale where delivery of a public offering statement is required, or unless exempt under RCW 64.34.400(2), a unit owner shall furnish to a purchaser before execution of any contract for sale of a unit, or otherwise before conveyance, a resale certificate, signed by an officer or authorized agent of the association and based on the books and records of the association and the actual knowledge of the person signing the certificate, containing: (a) A statement disclosing any right of first refusal or other restraint on the free alienability of the unit contained in the declaration; (b) A statement setting forth the amount of the monthly common expense assessment and any unpaid common expense or special assessment currently due and payable from the selling unit owner and a statement of any special assessments that have been levied against the unit which have not been paid even though not yet due; (c) A statement, which shall be current to within forty-five days, of any common expenses or special assessments against any unit in the condominium that are past due over thirty days; (d) A statement, which shall be current to within forty-five days, of any obligation of the association which is past due over thirty days; (e) A statement of any other fees payable by unit owners; (f) A statement of any anticipated repair or replacement cost in excess of five percent of the annual budget of the association that has been approved by the board of directors; (g) A statement of the amount of any reserves for repair or replacement and of any portions of those reserves currently designated by the association for any specified projects; (h) The annual financial statement of the association, including the audit report if it has been prepared, for the year immediately preceding the current year; (i) A balance sheet and a revenue and expense statement of the association prepared on an accrual basis, which shall be current to within one hundred twenty days; (j) The current operating budget of the association; (k) A statement of any unsatisfied judgments against the association and the status of any pending suits or legal proceedings in which the association is a plaintiff or defendant; (l) A statement describing any insurance coverage provided for the benefit of unit owners; (m) A statement as to whether there are any alterations or improvements to the unit or to the limited common elements assigned thereto that violate any provision of the declaration; (n) A statement of the number of units, if any, still owned by the declarant, whether the declarant has transferred control of the association to the unit owners, and the date of such transfer; (o) A statement as to whether there are any violations of the health or building codes with respect to the unit, the limited common elements assigned thereto, or any other portion of the condominium; (p) A statement of the remaining term of any leasehold estate affecting the condominium and the provisions governing any extension or renewal thereof; (q) A copy of the declaration, the bylaws, the rules or regulations of the association, the association's current reserve study, if any, and any other information reasonably requested by mortgagees of prospective purchasers of units. Information requested generally by the federal national mortgage association, the federal home loan bank board, the government national mortgage association, the veterans administration and the department of housing and urban development shall be deemed reasonable, provided such information is reasonably available to the association; (r) A statement, as required by RCW 64.35.210, as to whether the units or common elements of the condominium are covered by a qualified warranty, and a history of claims under any such warranty; and (s) If the association does not have a reserve study that has been prepared in accordance with RCW 64.34.380 and 64.34.382 or its governing documents, the following disclosure:
"This association does not have a current reserve study. The lack of a current reserve study poses certain risks to you, the purchaser. Insufficient reserves may, under some circumstances, require you to pay on demand as a special assessment your share of common expenses for the cost of major maintenance, repair, or replacement of a common element." (2) The association, within ten days after a request by a unit owner, and subject to payment of any fee imposed pursuant to RCW 64.34.304(1)(l), shall furnish a resale certificate signed by an officer or authorized agent of the association and containing the information necessary to enable the unit owner to comply with this section. For the purposes of this chapter, a reasonable charge for the preparation of a resale certificate may not exceed one hundred fifty dollars. The association may charge a unit owner a nominal fee for updating a resale certificate within six months of the unit owner's request. The unit owner shall also sign the certificate but the unit owner is not liable to the purchaser for any erroneous information provided by the association and included in the certificate unless and to the extent the unit owner had actual knowledge thereof. (3) A purchaser is not liable for any unpaid assessment or fee against the unit as of the date of the certificate greater than the amount set forth in the certificate prepared by the association unless and to the extent such purchaser had actual knowledge thereof. A unit owner is not liable to a purchaser for the failure or delay of the association to provide the certificate in a timely manner, but the purchaser's contract is voidable by the purchaser until the certificate has been provided and for five days thereafter or until conveyance, whichever occurs first.

What Real Estate Agents Are Saying About The Housing Market

2009-08-15T15:32:00.000-07:00

Great article and the picture above should displace the REMAX LADIES! I have other agents but I can't post for fear I would scare my clients!

Click here for what those crazy muts are saying about the housing market.

Home Price Declines Continue to Abate

2009-08-15T11:08:00.000-07:00

New York, July 28, 2009 – Data through May 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that, although still negative, the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved for the fourth consecutive month in 2009.

The entire report can be read here.

COSTS OF BAILOUT! 25 TRILLION

2009-07-20T13:49:00.000-07:00

GOOD ARTICLE CLICK HERE.

GLEN ACRES CONDOMINIUMS SEATTLE

2009-07-20T12:57:00.000-07:00

According to several clients I have in this particular complex, it is out of control. The reason being; the association is spending like drunken sailors. Not unusual for many homeowners associations but very detrimental to the value of their unit. Whats to keep things in check? Well possibly these
Revised Codes of Washington (RCW).

RCW 64.34.384
Reserve account — Withdrawals.
An association may withdraw funds from its reserve account to pay for unforeseen or unbudgeted costs. The board of directors shall record any such withdrawal in the minute books of the association, cause notice of any such withdrawal to be hand delivered or sent prepaid by first-class United States mail to the mailing address of each unit or to any other mailing address designated in writing by the unit owner, and adopt a repayment schedule not to exceed twenty-four months unless it determines that repayment within twenty-four months would impose an unreasonable burden on the unit owners.

Also, keep in mind the following section:

RCW 64.34.455
Effect of violations on rights of action — Attorney's fees.
If a declarant or any other person subject to this chapter fails to comply with any provision hereof or any provision of the declaration or bylaws, any person or class of persons adversely affected by the failure to comply has a claim for appropriate relief. The court, in an appropriate case, may award reasonable attorney's fees to the prevailing party.

UPDATE:

It would appear that there is now a pending lawsuit against Glen Acres. The recording number is 2009-0813001172

FASCINATING GRAPHIC

2009-07-13T12:32:00.000-07:00

GREEN BAR IS HOUSEHOLD INCOME - CLICK ARROW TO WATCH!

LOW END HOUSING IS CLOSE TO BOTTOM BUT....

2009-06-16T11:20:00.000-07:00

High end is in a different situation.From Bloomberg: ‘Millionaire Homes’ May Lose Value Until 2012
... “Tighter lending standards and the lack of cheap financing for these borrowers continue to be key issues,” the New York- based [JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts] wrote [in a June 12 report], referring to “jumbo” mortgages. That’s after so-called interest-only and option adjustable-rate loans were a “major driver” of soaring values, they said. ...“Currently, we have national home prices bottoming in 2011,” they said. “However, prices for more expensive homes may not bottom out until 2012, and ultimately result in peak-to- trough declines in excess of 60 percent (compared to 40 percent nationally).” “California is probably worse than other states, but higher-priced homes in general are going to be a problem,” Sim said in a telephone interview today.Most of the low end sales are "one and done" (the seller is a bank), and this will lead to a dearth of move up buyers. This lack of move up buyers, and tight financing will impact demand for the mid-to-high end. Although the percentage of foreclosures will be less in the high end areas than the low priced areas, the foreclosures are still coming (see Alt-A Foreclosures in Sonoma and Foreclosure Resales: Slow in High Priced Areas )However I disagree with the JPMorgan analysts on the relative price declines. Prices increased more in percentage terms in the low priced areas of California (like the Inland Empire and Sacramento) than in the high priced coastal areas. So prices will probably fall further in percentage terms from the peak in the low priced areas. Also, I think the price declines will occur over a longer period in the high priced areas (like the JPMorgan analysts), so the nominal price declines will be less (assuming a little inflation). But those are minor details - I agree there are further substantial price declines ahead.

APRIL HOUSING REPORT

2009-04-28T08:18:00.000-07:00

S&P Case-Shiller Feb 10-City Home Price Index -18.8% YYPROVIDED BY Dow Jones & Company, Inc. - 09:00 AM 04/28/2009DOW JONES NEWSWIRESU.S. home prices continued their multiyear slide in February, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes, but they did stop their 16-month streak of record declines.Fifteen of 20 major metropolitan areas posted price declines of more than 10% from a year earlier with the Sun Belt continuing to be hit hardest. Nationally, home prices are at levels similar to the third quarter of 2003."While the declines in residential real estate continued into February, we witnessed some deceleration in the rate of decline in some of the markets," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee. Still, 10 of the 20 metro areas reported record year-over-year declines.As of February, the 10-city index is down 32% from its mid-2006 peak and the 20-city is down 31%. The two indexes have fallen every month since August 2006, 31 straight.The indexes showed prices in 10 major metropolitan areas fell 19% in February from a year earlier and 2.1% from January. In 20 major metropolitan areas, home prices also dropped 19% from the prior year and 2.2% from January.Again, none of the regions could stave off a decline from January to February, although 16 of the 20 areas saw a smaller decline compared with January. Month- to-month decliners were led by Cleveland, which posted a 5% drop and displaced Phoenix, which saw prices fall 4.5%, from the top spot. Dallas fared best, edging down 0.3%.For the 11th straight month, no region was able to avoid a year-over-year decline, although nine cities posted better annual returns than they did in January. Phoenix and Las Vegas were again the worst performers, with drops of 35% and 32%, respectively. Phoenix is down 51% from its peak in June 2006. Dallas has been the least hurt, down 11% from its June 2007 peak.Compared with a year earlier, Dallas and Denver again had the best relative performance, with annual declines of 4.5% and 5.7%, respectively.The news comes after government data Friday showed new-home sales fell in March, but only mildly, after a surge the month before. More data last week showed that existing-home sales dropped in March and median prices fell 12%, according to the National Association of Realtors.

To read report click here.

2009-04-18T13:35:00.000-07:00

Irrationality of real estate investors. I can boil it down in simple terms in the matrix below:

In an up market, Buyers are driven by emotion and continue to chase prices higher on the euphoric expectation of profits. In the down market, Buyers become hyper-rational. Perhaps a funnier way to think about it is that when the market is going up, Buyers are Believers. When the market is going down, Buyers are like atheists. Their stance is “Prove it to me.”

On the flip side, in an up market, Sellers are the more rational market participants. When we enter a down market, Sellers are the ones driven by emotion and have a difficult time making decisions that are rational.

EMPLOYMENT PICTURE DARKENS

2009-04-17T11:00:00.000-07:00

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Indiana in March joined seven other U.S. states with a jobless rate of at least 10 percent, and unemployment surged in Oregon, Washington and West Virginia as the worst employment slump in the postwar era rippled through the economy.

Indiana’s jobless rate jumped to 10 percent last month from 9.4 percent in February, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. Michigan, with 12.6 percent, remained the state with the highest unemployment rate, followed by Oregon at 12.1 percent. The rate in California rose to 11.2 percent from 10.6 percent.

QUICK UPDATE ON MARKET

2009-04-16T07:12:00.000-07:00

Now is a good time to buy a home for those with long-term plans to live there and a solid job, thanks to a combination of low prices, favorable interest rates and various government incentives.

Anyone thinking of refinancing should do so immediately because the amount of government borrowing will raise rates sooner or later.

It still is a buyers market and the amount of foreclosure's on the market continue to suppress house prices.

THOUGHT THIS WAS INTERESTING

2009-04-09T14:42:00.001-07:00

click the PICTURE for larger image. History is an amazing thing when you look back on it. Similarities between past and present can be fascinating.

THE DOOM BUNKER

2009-03-06T15:28:00.000-08:00

The Colbert ReportMon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c

Doom Bunker - Jack Jacobs and Stephen Moore

Colbert Report Full Episodes
Political Humor

Rap Battle
Joke of the Day

REAL ESTATE WARNINGS FROM 2003

2009-02-26T02:45:00.000-08:00

The problems were known but ignored. We certainly have the best government money can buy.

Back to GREENUP AND ASSOCIATES home page.

BAILOUT COSTS - WOW!

2009-02-25T16:36:00.001-08:00

Not much to say except we have sold our kids down the river......

The above graphic was from the evil speculator - hat tip

To see that site click here.

INTEREST RATES AND BAILOUTS

2009-02-10T14:02:00.000-08:00

Over the last few years I have made reference to the fact that runaway government spending eventually causes interest rates to rise. We are fast approaching that time when the bond market says enough! This article from Bloomberg spells out this exact scenario. Read.

So, by trying to save housing they may end up exacerbating the problem through higher interest rates. Time will tell but I have the belief that throwing money at the housing problem is foolish and will result in epic failure.

THE SPEECH I WOULD LOVE TO HEAR

2009-02-09T17:07:00.000-08:00

My Fellow Americans,

Although during my inaugural address, I affirmed we were a nation of many faiths - - including "non-belivers", allow me to read from Ecclesiastes 3:1-8:

To everything there is a season,
a time for every purpose under the sun.
A time to be born and a time to die;
a time to plant and a time to pluck up that which is planted;
a time to kill and a time to heal ...
a time to weep and a time to laugh;
a time to mourn and a time to dance ...
a time to embrace and a time to refrain from embracing;
a time to lose and a time to seek;
a time to rend and a time to sew;
a time to keep silent and a time to speak;
a time to love and a time to hate;
a time for war and a time for peace.

The past three decades have been witness to an American which has seduced itself into utter fantasy - - - into a world where people believe they should be multi-millionaires in their twenties, everyone should own a large house, and no one should have any meaningful restrictions on how much they eat, spend, or consume.

The party is over. And as much as we'd all like it to come back, it's going to be over for a very long time. This is a time where we, as a nation, must act like adults and face what is before us. Our banking system is bankrupt. Our nation has financial obligations it can never fully honor. And our economy is in shambles.

What made America great is not gone, however. We have abundant natural resources; a world-class system of higher-education; a diverse, vibrant population eager to build a better life for themselves and their families; and a government and legal system which is, on the whole, free, strong, and worthy of the nation's trust.

We, as a nation, must understand there are tough times ahead, and there is no easy fix. Over the coming months, I will be working with Congress to implement The Reality and Reconstruction Act, which will, among other things:

Phase out our unteneable obligations to Medicare and Social Security, effectively eliminating these agencies within ten years;

Seek civil and criminal prosecution, including confiscatory asset seizure, against any senior personnel in the financial, lending, or investment banking industry which has profited unfairly from the financial bubble over the past decade;
Shutter any financial institution unable to support itself as an independent enterprise;
Implement a flat tax of 25% on all income, with a contemporaneous dilution of the Internal Revenue Service;
Position our entire recovery strategy to be global-based, as opposed to US-based, striving to keep trade barriers as low or non-existent as possible
The road to recovery will be a long and hard one, but with these bold steps, we will ultimately prevail. These are hard choices, but the consequences of not making these choices now will be far more severe in just a few years. I thank you for your support, and I wish you, your family, and our nation strength, wisdom, and courage. Good night.

SLOPE OF HOPE

Won't happen but one can dream.

STIMULUS BILL: AKA PORKULUS

2009-02-08T16:54:00.000-08:00

CLICK TO ENLARGE

The net result will be higher interest rates. The U.S. is maxing out it's line of credit.

HOUSING TAX CREDIT

2009-02-07T15:35:00.000-08:00

The Senate has apparently kept the $15,000 homebuyer tax credit in the stimulus package. The tax credit sponsors, Senators Johnny Isakson and Joe Lieberman, estimated the cost would be $18.5 billion. Several analysts (like Dean Baker) made fun of this estimate, and the new is estimate is a cost of $35.5 billion. But this post isn't about the poor math skills of Senators ...First the details (as far as I can tell):

The tax credit is 10% of the purchase price up to $15,000.
The tax credit is for one year (from date of enactment).
The credit is available for both new and existing home purchases.
This is for primary residences only, and the home must be owner occupied for two years after purchase.
There is no income cap (the $7,500 tax credit had an income cap of $150,000 per year).
Unlike the $7,500 tax credit, the new credit does not have to be repaid over time.
The credit is limited each year to the amount of taxes paid in any one year (with the $7,500 tax credit, buyers received the entire credit and a refund if the $7,500 was greater than taxes for the year)
Buyers can split the $15,000 into two separate tax credits to be taken in successive years.

The rest of this comprehensive article is at Calculated Risk Blog. One of the finest sites on real estate I know of!

OUR GOVERNMENT IS INSANE!

2009-01-30T11:14:00.000-08:00

Politicians Want to Use Tax Dollars to Crush Newer-Model Trucks and SUVs SEMA Warns Lawmakers This Boondoggle Will Cost American Jobs

SEMA is opposing an effort by some Washington lawmakers to include a national car crushing program in the upcoming economic stimulus package. Vehicles targeted for the scrap pile will likely include Chevy Blazers, Silverados, S-10s and Tahoes; Dodge Dakotas and Rams; Ford Explorers and F-Series; Jeep Cherokees and Wranglers; and any other SUV or truck that obtains less than 18 mpg.For the rest of the article click here.

Guess our Government is too stupid to realize we are broke.I guess when no one is employed the people will wake up. On the current course this will be soon....

TARP FREE MONEY !!

2009-01-23T15:14:00.000-08:00

SEATTLE REAL ESTATE FORECAST

2009-01-19T19:14:00.000-08:00

Some of our finest minds were at work crafting our 2009 real estate forecast . To read our report click here.

CRIMINAL MIND - WALL STREET!

2009-01-09T16:52:00.000-08:00

Straight Talk - Stock Market
by senatork

Projections by Tuesday..... been busy doing real estate!
A good thing because I need to make money to pay for all
the new taxes I will be paying thanks to all those STUPID bailouts.

4.5% INTEREST RATES ?

2008-12-16T13:36:00.000-08:00

Rates have plummeted as risk adverse investors plough money into treasuries. Take advantage of this!! I doubt it will last.

OUTLOOK FOR COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

2008-12-05T17:21:00.000-08:00

They are sure throwing a ton of money at this! Click to read outlook of commercial market. Another article focusing on the local market.

CLASSIC !

2008-11-28T19:34:00.000-08:00

HAPPY THANKSGIVING! LATEST HOUSING REPORT!

2008-11-27T12:23:00.000-08:00

November housing report click here.

Case Shiller Housing Report

2008-10-30T04:10:00.001-07:00

The Case Shiller report can be viewed here. I have been asked by numerous people to start posting a monthly housing report so here you go! Also you can view market statistics by clicking on the market stats button on the column to the right. I try to update these monthly. Still showing a buyer's market and we continue to project a soft housing market into late 2009.

STOCK MARKET GETS HAMMERED!

2008-09-17T11:59:00.000-07:00

Money has flowed out of the stock market into the bond market causing mortgage rates to drop significantly. We do not anticipate these rates to stay low as the funding of the U.S. debt continues to be problematic. Short term these lower rates are a boon to home buyer's.

CONDITION OF REAL ESTATE MARKET

2008-08-20T10:14:00.000-07:00

Click the picture to go watch this up to date and informative video on the current state of the real estate market. I have followed Barry for years and he has been prescient in his calls.

RECENT EVENTS EXPLAINED!

2008-07-26T19:45:00.000-07:00

I get asked alot to explain the current mortgage mess. Well this is about as easy to understand as it comes. These events should infuriate you we are going to be paying for this for a long time. Click on the picture to enlarge.

MID-YEAR 2008 MARKET UPDATE

2008-07-24T08:19:00.000-07:00

We are holding on tight! The market has been like riding a bull but this is all I could come up with. Read our 2008 update here.

IF ONLY JED CLAMPETT WERE RUNNING THINGS

2008-07-20T06:41:00.000-07:00

Common sense needs to return or else things are going to snowball downward. Great article here. Not real estate specific but it certainly applies. Longing for the days of sound common sense and good judgement!

MIDYEAR FORECAST

2008-06-07T08:41:00.000-07:00

Our housing forecasts for the last several years have been very accurate. We tell it like it is even when our views are cautious. We have never been real estate cheerleaders. Our honest advice has reaped rewards and has earned us a loyal following. The market, at present is very difficult but it is nothing that we have not seen before. We are in the process of drafting our mid-year report highlighting what we expect for the remainder of 2008. So check back.......

For our past market commentaries feel free to browse the blog and also go here.

New State Law For Condo Associations

2008-04-28T10:13:00.000-07:00

Attention, condominium shoppers: Washington soon will become one of a half-dozen states requiring condo associations to provide a financial-wellness check that can predict whether the place is a potential money pit

Click here to read the rest

Click here to read the actual passed Bill

THE HERD IS TOLD WHATS UP!

2008-03-27T09:00:00.000-07:00

We have been telling clients the same thing for many months.Now it must be true! King 5 reports........

Easier to check in with us and view our forecasts. Of course feel free to post how your local markets are doing. Our theme for 2008 ......

"Skate where the puck is going to be, not where it has been” – Wayne Gretzky

SUB PRIME MORTGAGE BLUES

2008-03-15T05:43:00.000-07:00

One of my blog readers sent me this.Funny,informative and sad all rolled into one.At least I know at least one person reads what I post. :)

PRICING MISTAKES CAN BE PAINFUL

2008-03-11T19:52:00.001-07:00

We take pride that our company has been one of the industry vanguards when it comes to projecting market direction. This article was written a year ago as our real estate market was peaking. I have reposted this because the single most important thing in selling a home is proper pricing. Read previously written article here.

Also see credit crunch below... The crunch is causing lenders to tighten their lending criteria which in turn is making buying a house more difficult.

CREDIT CRUNCH .....

2008-03-06T14:02:00.000-08:00

March 6 (Bloomberg) -- Yields on agency mortgage-backed securities rose to a new 22-year high relative to U.S. Treasuries as banks stepped up margin calls and concerns grew that the Federal Reserve may be unable to curb the credit slump. The rest can be read here.....

To the above article I just have to say duh! We have been saying this for months!!

The credit problem is getting worse. This does not bode well for the housing market in Seattle and we are revising our outlook downward. Our full report will be out in the next few days.

WHY RATES ARE GOING UP!

2008-02-25T15:38:00.000-08:00

NO SURPRISE - WATCH THIS IF YOU HAVE A STRONG STOMACH!

Our government is funded through the issuance of debt. Those that buy our debt are starting to REQUIRE a higher rate to compensate them for the risk of owning U.S debt. As the United States continues to pile on the debt that risk premium will continue to add pressure to rates. Fiscal responsibility may actually be forced upon the idiots that infest our nations capital.

He just quit his position - he (David M. Walker, Comptroller General of the United States), basically could not get the politicians to actually do anything.No surprise there......

One caveat: the recent stock market carnage has caused money to flow from the stock market and into risk-free treasury bonds. These inflows have had the effect of lowering yields and consequently caused mortgage rates to soften. These artificially low interest rates will eventually succumb to the pressures of funding the debt. Rates will ebb and flow in the coming months but it is my position that rates will soon advance upward.

INTEREST RATES ARE GOING HIGHER!

2008-02-14T15:19:00.000-08:00

I get asked all the time about interest rates.Up or down? I think we have pretty much bottomed on rates.You can get 5.5% for a 30 year fixed loan right now.The bond market controls long term rates not the Fed. The Fed heads can continue to mess around with the short term rates but in the end the bond boyz..... are in control and always win!

GOOD LISTEN!

2008-02-06T05:32:00.000-08:00

One of my favorite commentators. His comments on real estate are in reference to the entire country. The Seattle region is still among the countries strongest but his comments are still a good listen.

inman Connect - NYC 08 - Barry Ritholtz

WE EVEN SELL GAS STATIONS!

2008-01-27T15:07:00.000-08:00

REAL ESTATE BEAR MARKET ?

2008-01-21T15:28:00.000-08:00

The impact of the stock market decline will have a reverse wealth effect. This will impact the housing market, especially the higher end.Our forecast for 2008 appears to be on target and if you have not read it I encourage you to.See post below.

2008 FORECAST - BULL OR BEAR?

2007-12-27T09:49:00.001-08:00

Click the pic or click here.

CALIFORNIA THE WHEELS HAVE COME OFF!

2007-12-01T14:24:00.000-08:00

Glad the South Puget Sound Region never got to California extremes! Yikes!

FORCASTS FOR 2008 COMING SOON!

2007-11-28T17:17:00.000-08:00

......"Skate where the puck is going to be, not where it has been” – Wayne Gretzky

Will be our theme for 2008

CRYSTAL BALL - WHERE ARE WE GOING ?

2007-09-05T15:02:00.000-07:00

CLICK THE PIC

A crystal ball is always a dangerous thing but I am once again voicing my opinion about our real estate market. If you go through my blog you will see that I accurately predicted the market peak. Most of the negative headlines you read are from certain U.S. locations that had excessive speculation and froth. Arizona, Florida and of course good old California. When you really break it down and analyze the data, you will see that as usual real estate is currently "area specific" and the declines have occured in certain areas. Other areas have flatlined and or had minor appreciation. The Puget Sound Region appears to have areas of both flatlining and some areas of minor price appreciation. The properties "closer in" (to the Seattle metropolitan area) have tended to have minor appreciation while the outlining areas have flatlined. I posted an article about this here.

I would venture to bet that we continue on this ragged, albeit stale, path through 2008. After the incredible run we have had it is not a suprise that we return to a more normal and balanced market. I will continue to monitor and let you know how things look. But for now it appears our area is looking pretty good!.

THE GENIUS IN THE ADVERTISING DEPARTMENT CAME UP WITH THIS

2007-09-05T11:07:00.000-07:00

tried to convince me Brand "B" was acceptable... I fired him and he went on to become a male model. Wow! watch the video, ( click the pic ), of what happened to this genius, formerly of our advertising department. He was so smart he did not understand about gas and matches........

LATEST HOUSE PRICES FOR SEATTLE

2007-09-02T11:38:00.000-07:00

CLICK THE PIC

House prices in the United States have been rocked by high inventory and market turmoil. The Seattle Region has fared reasonably well and actually registered price increases. Tighter credit standards have certainly impacted the region but our region has proven to be one of the most resilient. Some really good values can be found in the South Puget Sound Region. Everyone gets caught up in Seattle, Bellevue prices but they miss other very affordable areas.

Another good article is found here.

GET RICH QUICK CLIENTS

2007-08-17T13:34:00.000-07:00

THEY DID NOT LISTEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What else is new? You can make money buying fixers
but you better know what you're doing or you will end
up like these guys. When everyone is doing it you know
you're late to the party. Before you buy consult an expert.

I saw the market peak months ago............

Former house flippers - SEE THIS POST

Don't forget click the pic !

WHEN SEATTLE CATCHES A COLD THE SOUTH END CATCHES PNEUMONIA

2007-08-13T13:37:00.000-07:00

Click the pic

The heading says it all - market cycles DO tend to punish the outlying areas the most.

That has happened and the south end offers some compelling values. I am advising buyers to take advantage of them.

Rates and inventory are very attractive at present.The time to buy is when you can maximize your purchase. Remember! Following the herd is never the way to make a purchase. When the markets are filled with gloom.... consider buying.

60 PLUS YEARS OF EXPERIENCE

2007-08-11T07:51:00.001-07:00

CLICK THE PIC TO VISIT OUR HOME PAGE

The owners of Greenup and Associates have over sixty years of combined experience. New agents must have at least five years of experience and be Associate Brokers. We want quality because as we go forward the challenges the market faces will require "THE RIGHT STUFF".

This site tries to have a humorous side, but we here at Greenup and Associates are dead serious when it comes to your real estate needs. Humor relieves the daily stresses, yet gives us the opportunity to answer questions and inform our clients of the rapidly changing market.

Challenges posed by the market are easily navigated by those with the " RIGHT STUFF" i.e., experience

Who Can't Get A Mortgage Now

2007-08-10T18:39:00.000-07:00

Click The Pic

Been through this type of turmoil before. This is an actual picture of me during the early 1980's. I had nineteen deals in the pipe and a credit crisis occurred. As you can tell my face, (very handsome I might add), literally burst into flames. Tough day but my cousin, and me the unknown comic, still talk about it to this day. Who is the unknown comic you say. Well click here to find out.

My dog, AKA " THE UNKNOWN DOG "
uncovered this good article so click the pic.

Open Houses Are They Effective??

2007-08-03T07:22:00.000-07:00

click the pic for the rest of the comments
Like this comment the best.

"open houses? good only for the realtor in gaining clients and tracking dirt in the home. Thats my experience. "

RENTS WAY UP - WILL SUPPORT MARKET

2007-07-14T09:17:00.000-07:00

click the pic

Rents being high support real estate prices and it appears rents in the Seattle area are going up. This was very predictable since MOST of the cities around here are trying to increase density but are failing miserably. No land + no density equal higher rents. So, the higher rents go the more a house looks like it will financially make sense. The problem is that over the last few years things stretched too far and too fast. Things are starting to slow but nothing goes up in a straight line. The Pacific Northwest is still a good bet long term.......... ouch! that has got to hurt.

Subprime Market Still Causing HEADACHES

2007-07-09T11:17:00.000-07:00

CLICK THE PIC TO READ STORY

I mentioned the impact of these subprime issues back in March. I even posted remarks at a popular cheer leading blog in Seattle. See posts , 23 onward. I must have had my Wheaties that morning. Credit is what it is all about. I think the Seattle market will fair better than many parts of the U.S. but credit contraction is underway. If you are a seller you better price your house right and if you are a buyer its time to start turning over rocks.
Be ahead of the curve and the herd. My track record and market calls are easily tracked by going through my archive.